Bet a nickle

Week 5: my EPL bets

2012-02-03T12:07:00.000-08:00

1) Arsenal v Blackburn, Saturday 8 am Peruvian time

This is not the best moment of the season for the Arsenal (CF=28%) but I do think they will be too good for Blackburn, one of the worst defences of the league (CS=0).

I guess Sagna second game after injury may be key for the Gunners. Blackburn will be without goal scorer Yakubu and defender Samba, which means they lost firepower: both players were involved in 67% of the visitors goals so far this season.

Prediction: Arsenal will not record 5 PL games without a win playing at home, Arsenal win. Also like the -1 or -1.5 spread lines.

2) QPR v Wolves, Saturday 10 am Peruvian time

The hosts are bookies favourites but their stats aren't that good: 18% of home games won so far this season, CF=28%, new manager 5 games ago. I think this is Hughes v Warnock media effect.

The visitors are not doing good either (CF10=23%) but the better striker will be in their side (Fletcher).

Prediction: I see bet value on the underdogs, Wolves don't lose

Week 45. My Picks

2011-11-15T09:04:00.000-08:00

These are what I got for today's South America WC Qualifiers matches:

1) Colombia v Argentina (16:00 hrs. Peruvian time)

Hosts without Guarin and Falcao may lose firepower (check this). Visitors are not as good as we all think they are when playing in South America: in last 7 games only beat 2ub-23 Costa Rica at Copa America and Chile, worst defence of the tournament.

My play: under 2.5 goals. It costs -150 at bookmaker.eu

2) Ecuador v Peru (16:00 hrs. Peruvian time)

Hosts are a good side and altitude will play on their side. My numbers say Peru has became an attacking side, so I am expecting a very open game right after the first goal.

My play: over 2.5 goals. It costs -105 at bookmaker.eu

3) Venezuela v Bolivia (20:00 hrs. Peruvian time)

If there is a national team with a long-term plan is Venezuela. They are playing good football but I don't like to bet on them at -250, so I will go for the goals.

My play: over 2.5 goals. It costs -105 at bookmaker.eu

SUB: Chile v Paraguay (18:30 hrs. Peruvian time)

I am also expecting goals in this one. Visitors are known by their defensive approach but they are also setpieces specialists, big threat for the worst defence of the region at the moment.

My play: over 2.5 goals. It pays +115 at bookmaker.eu

My picks. Week 38

2011-09-23T09:26:00.000-07:00

Already got 4 wins and 1 lose betting Carling Cup Third Round on Tuesday and Wednesday. Arsenal win, Bolton +1 (spread), Stoke u2.5 and Liverpool win were the good ones. Lost $1 with Everton not beating WBA on regular time. Hope to maintain my momentum this weekend, here my plays.

1) PERU- Cesar Vallejo v Alianza Sullana (Friday 16:00 hrs, Peruvian time)

This is a game between 2 teams in the RZ (relegation zone) of the table (same situation if table last 7 games).

Vallejo's last 4 games were loses. They had only 1 win in their last 12 matches (draws=3).

The visitors had improve with their new DT: 37% of possible points v 26% with last coach, converting them to an under 2.5 goals team (7 u2.5/9 games in charge=78%)

My play: Vallejo u2.5. It costs -120 at bookmaker.com

2) NON-BRAINERS: Chelsea v Swansea; Celtic v Inverness; Real Madrid v Rayo Vallecano (all 3 on Saturday)

My plays: Chelsea win; Celtic win; RM win. They are expensive but safe, parlay them.
I also like Chelsea tonking Swansea: Chelsea -2-105. In my opinion, Swansea will be relegated at the end of the season

3) EPL- MC v Everton (Saturday 6:45 hrs, Peruvian time)

We all know MC is favourite to win this one because they have been amazing in their start of this season. Nonetheless, I see their finalizacoes (shots on + off target + blocked) and CR (convertion rate) numbers decreasing. On the other hand, as I read on BBC: "Everton is also well accostumed to stuffing mega-bucks Man City" (check this)

My play: I'm just with the underdogs, Everton +1. It pays +125 at bookmaker.com

4) EPL- Arsenal v Bolton (Saturday 9:00 hrs, Peruvian time)

I'm not betting on Arsenal because this is their worst start to a PL season, and for me: numbers talk.

Bolton will be without Klasnic (suspended), which are 4/8 goals minus (-50%, 3 goals, 1 assist).

Don't worry about the visitors defence: Arsenal is not MU or MC with their 23% and 15% CR respectively so far this season (highest). They have just scored 7% of their total chances (on/off target and blocked). Plus, they have scored 1 goal max in their last 8 PL games at the Emirates, and got 8 clean sheets in their last 12 PL matches at the Emirates.

My play: under 3 . It costs -125 at bookmaker.com

5) EPL- Liverpool v Wolves (Saturday 9:00 hrs, Peruvian time)

My play: Liverpool win. It costs -300 at bookmaker.com

6)) PERU- U v Alianza (Saturday 17:30 hrs, Peruvian time)

The U have the best defence of the league and have based their strenght playing at Monumental. Sure thing, now this is really the most important game of their season, so they will be up to.

On the other hand, Alianza have a long unbeaten run: 11 games without losing, getting clean sheets in 73% and scoring in 82% of this run. The longest the run, the closest is the time to be broken. Don't forget this is unusual in South American football.

My play: U win. It pays +150 at bookmaker.com. Can also get a Draw no bet: U PK -120 I calculate

My picks: week 36

2011-09-09T10:15:00.000-07:00

UKRAINE: Shakhtar Donetsk v Volyn. (Friday 11 hrs, Peruvian time)

Shakhtar and DK are the big 2 of Ukraine, now fighting for the first spot in the table only by goal difference. Volyn are in a run of 4 unbeaten games, all them against teams alike, i.e another "relegation zone" sides including 2 just promoted. They were promoted last season to 1st Division after 4 seasons.

My play: this one is a non-brainer, Shakhtar win

ENGLAND: Arsenal v Swansea. (Saturday 9 hrs, Peruvian time)

Huge game for the home side because everybody in the club needs a bit of a lift after Old Trafford trashed. I am expecting such a big team like the Gunners will recovery against a just promoted side who haven't score a single goal yet. As I read somewhere: "if Wigan can nullify their threat, then so can most of the Premier League".

My play: Arsenal win

ENGLAND: MC v Wigan. (Saturday 9 hrs, Peruvian time)

The way MC is playing in the league this season makes me think this one as another non-brainer. If they give us more of that, they will trashed Wigan´s weaky defence. One thing is to defend from just promoted sides, other is to deal with Silva, Nasri, Kun, Dzeko, A. Johnson and Tevez.

My play: MC win, look for spread lines til -1.5

UKRAINE: Dynamo Kyiv v Illychivets. (Sunday 11:30 hrs, Peruvian time)

The hosts have a winning run of 6 games in a row, which may be enough for me to not bet it (too much confidence). BUT I think DK will take this chance to keep pace with their only rivals in the league: Shakhtar had won 5 of last 7 tournaments. By the way, Illychivets are also a relegation zone side there.

My play: Dynamo Kyiv win (if Shakhtar win on Friday, this become a must win one)

Week 20: balance

2011-05-17T21:47:00.000-07:00

Week 20: weekend picks

2011-05-13T14:22:00.000-07:00

1) EPL - Blackburn Rovers v MU: bet MU PK -350

If MU don't lose, they will be champions. Last week I bet on MU against Chelsea, mainly because when they have to deliver, they did so. I'll do it again.
Rovers are not in form: 27% of last 11 matches points. After Allardyce sack, they have decline.
Parlay with Liverpool PK -325.

2) EPL- Sunderland v Wolves: bet over 2.5 goals EV

In December I wouldn't bet for the many goals game of Sunderland but they had changed. First 11 home games (before): 67% of total points, CS=64%, under 2.5 g=73%; last 7 home games (now): 14% of total points, CS=0, under 2.5 g=29%.
Wolves had changed too, but on the road: CS=2/18 games=11%; FtS=7/18 games=39%; last 5 games: CS=1/5 games=20%; FtS=1/5 games=20%
There have been 15 goals in the 3 EPL games between these teams; CS=0 in the past 9 meetings.
All we need is one goal to open the game, which is likely due to the injury-hit home side and the visitors needs.

3) FA CUP- MC v Stoke City: bet under 2.5 goals -155

This one is a hugely physical Final, maybe the most physical of recent years: height, weight, setpieces and headers are key within both teams' football style.
Numbers say so: all the matches played between them since Stoke's last return to Premier League football (season 2008-09) have ended with no more than 2 goals in regular time. 7 games, EPL=5, FA CUP=2 (season 2009-10); MC=1, Stoke=1, draw=5 (all regular time results).
I really like this play, because it is a final game and is MC and Stoke playing it.

4) EPL- Chelsea v Newcastle: bet Chelsea -485

If Chelsea win they will secure second spot in the league (next match: Everton, away). They have an impressive recent league form: 25 points from the last 30.
Newcastle are not in form, had already achieved their goal of the season:, and will miss 2 key players on Sunday: defensive midfielder Tiote and attacking midfielder Nolan (top goalscorer).
I have won all my last 7 Chelsea bets: Blackpool, MC, Wigan, Birmingham, WHU and Tottenham at the Bridge; and last week defeat against MU.
If Ancelotti makes more than 2 changes to his usual first-team selection, I won't bet.

5) EPL- Liverpool v Tottenham: bet Liverpool PK -325

NOTES:

Lines from bookmaker.com

*CS=clean sheets, FtS=fail to score

Week 20: midweek picks

2011-05-11T09:32:00.000-07:00

1) PERU- Cienciano v Juan Aurich: Aurich don't lose

2) PERU- Alianza Lima v Leon de Huanuco: bet under 2.5 -150

Alianza is the best home defence of the league. Leon has the second worst goalscoring record on the road.
Alianza's manager will make changes on their attacking positions: fringe players coming in, I don't see how this will really change their options.
Leon +1 is also a highly recommended play.

3) PERU- Union Comercio v Melgar: bet Melgar don't lose

If home side win, then it'll be 5 wins in a row at home, and 100% of the points. This is a big team number, not a just promoted one.
This season so far: Melgar don't lose on the road=50%.
Melgar just broke an unbeaten run of 5 games (CS=60%) losing at Huancayo, a city over 3,000 m.o.s.l. This game won't have that sort of problems.
I do think Melgar is not that bad team.

4) PERU- Alianza Sullana v Universidad San Martin: bet San Martin PK +115

Week 19: balance

2011-05-11T09:28:00.000-07:00

Great week. 10 picks, won=8, lose=2. This is 80% accuracy. Awesome!

I'll keep working hard to become a real pro.

Week 19: My pycks for the weekend

2011-05-05T12:55:00.000-07:00

First 2 picks ko on Saturday, picks 3 and 4 on Sunday and the last one on Monday. I also pick two plays as subs, just in case, you never know in this business.

1) EPL- Everton v MC: bet Everton PK -115

Vs history: last 10 EPL matches= Eve 7 MC 2 draw 1, u2.5 goals=70%; last 5 matches at Goodison Park= Eve PK 80% (win=60%), u2.5 goals=80%
Home side are in the midst of its usual end-of-season flourish: 6 wins, 3 draws and 2 loses (both on the road, 1 game against MU), unbeaten at home (win=67%, draw=33%).
Mancini have lose all 3 matches against Everton manager Moyes. Some journalist say it is because Everton didn't like the way in which MC took full-back Lescott from them.
MC have not recorded 4 wins in a row this season. If they win it would be the first time.
In their last 4 away matches: lose=75%.

2) EPL- Aston Villa v Wigan: bet Wigan don't lose

Wigan is in relegation battle with 3 games to go. Their faith rely on the fact that they have not lose at Villa Park in EPL history: Wigan PK=100% (win=60%) at Villa Park.
I like them getting a result tomorrow because of their last games: they played really good against Everton, Blackpool, Chelsea and Spurs.
Villa is about to finish a really bad season: 39% of total points with 3 games to go.
This is the third game under the caretaker charge of the inexperienced McAllister (1 draw, 1 lose)

3) EPL- Wolves v WBA: bet under 2.5 -110

This one is a derby with special spice because Wolves are desperate to pick up the 3 points that would help their relegation battle.
My play for derbies is under 2.5 goals. There are exceptions, like Arsenal-Spurs, but this one is not one of them. Only 3 of last 10 derbies have ended with 3 or more goals.

4) EPL- MU v Chelsea: bet MU PK -150

This one is a title decider and I'll bet on the team I consider the best of the season. Mainly because when they have to deliver, they did so.
VS history: Chelsea won their last 3 league meetings; MU have recorded back-to-back wins in the Champions League quarter-final this season.
Chelsea have an impressive recent league form*: 25 points from the last 27 (6 at the Bridge). BUT I do think one thing is to beat out-of form Spurs, relegation strugglers Birmingham and WHU, and another to beat MU playing for the title. Specially if Ancelotti insists starting Torres.
This season MU based their power at Old Trafford, where they have dropped just 2 points all season (a draw with WBA). So they'll just stick to their plan.

*I have won all the games I bet during Chelsea impressive league form: Chelsea beat Blackpool, MC, Wigan, Birmingham, WHU and Tottenham (all as home side)

5) EPL- Fulham v Liverpool (Monday): Liverpool PK -150

SUBS:

1) PERU- Univ. San Martín v Alianza Lima (Saturday): bet over 2 -130

2) EPL- Stoke v Arsenal (Sunday): bet over 2.5 -125

Vs history: (only) 5 EPL games, o2.5=60%, Stoke 1 Arsenal 4 draw 0; just 2 matches at Brittania Stadium, results: 2-1 and 1-3, openers before minute 15 in both games.
Arsenal is an open football team, who get 71% away games with 3 or more goals; and they also have the better attack on the road.
I see the home side converting one goal on setpieces: greater proportion of goals from set pieces (48.8%) than any other side and striker Kenwyne Jones has had more headed shots (39) than any other player in the division.

NOTES: Lines from bookmaker.com

Week 19: Wednesday. My picks.

2011-05-03T17:00:00.000-07:00

1) CHAMPIONS LEAGUE- MU v Schalke 04: Bet over 2.5 goals

Underdogs Schalke need to put goals in order to keep dreaming of qualification, so playing counter-attacking football may not be an option.
Manager Ferguson field XI fringe players for this match. This team include 3 changes at defence.
Raul is the leading scorer of UEFA club competition. This one may be his last Champions League game.
I just like it.

2) COPA LIBERTADORES- Inter v Peñarol: Bet Inter -265,-275

Inter need to win or to draw 0-0 this second leg match (unlikely plan to qualify). First game ended 1-1 at (Uruguay).
Inter Copa Libertadores home record: 2011=100%, 3 matches, 9-0, CS*=100%; 2010=100%, 7 matches, 14-3, CS*=71%.
Inter pedigree: current Copa Libertadores champion (2010); 2008 Copa Sudamericana champion; 2007 Recopa Sudamericana; 2006 Copa Libertadores champion and Club World Cup champion. So they care about this sort of tournaments.
Peñarol pedigree: since 2004, first time they advance group stage.
Peñarol away on Libertadores: w=1, d=1, l=5; 5-19 goals. They have only get points against Godoy Cruz and Sao Caetano ...
This is a big club of Brazil against a big name of Uruguay. I'll go with the team I think play the best football and who had prove they want this cup.

NOTES:

*CS= clean sheets.

Lines from bookmaker.com

Week 19: My Barca v RM pick

2011-05-03T11:21:00.000-07:00

I am betting Real Madrid +1 -150 with bookmaker.com.

This is a clásico, a massive game between two really big teams in the world. and RM win +360??? I don't think so.
I know I am going against the drain, BUT in the last 6 clásicos, any of us would won 5 if we did so.
Of course, I know Barca has Messi, people think they are the best team in the world, some say of football history, that Ramos, Khedira and Pepe are not playing, etc, etc. But I also know that this is a game, and the players are all human.
I am just thinking this is not going to be an easy one, as everybody think.

Enjoy the game!

Week 18: Sunday. My picks

2011-04-28T21:43:00.001-07:00

1) HOLLAND - penultimate matchday: parlay PSV -585 and Twente -1500

Twente, Ajax and PSV Eindhoven are fighting for this season championship with 2 matchdays remaining.
Twente and PSV play at home against "relegation zone" teams: Willem II (already relegated) and Vitesse (19% on the road, 69% of games loss, bad defence= -2.31 goals, clean sheets=13% on the road).

2) EPL - Birmingham v Wolverhampton: bet Birmingham PK

Relegation battle with 4 games remaining to play.
Home side had lost only 1 game against teams fighting to not be relegated this season.
The visitors are the worst side on the road of the league
I like it: Birmingham had prove to be a better team than Wolves since they both got promoted.
But 3 points would mean 3 wins a row for Bimingham playing at home.

3) EPL - Liverpool v Newcastle: bet Liverpool

Must win game if they want to have European football next season.
IF Tottenham lose against Chelsea, as I expect, then Liverpool could reach will 5th spot with a win.
Liverpool is the second in form team of the league, and they have beat Chelsea and MU at Anfield.
Newcastle have won only 2 of their past 13 league matches (Birmingham away, Wolves at home)

4) EPL - MC v WHU: bet MC -250

Beat West Ham United is key to keep 4th spot and play Champions League football next season. This is the easiest on paper of their remainder 5 matches.
IF Tottenham lose against Chelsea, as I expect, then a win will rise the gap to 7 points with Tottenham.

5) PERU - Alianza Sullana v Juan Aurich: draw +

Juan Aurich is favourite but they have not win in Piura since their return to first division 3 years ago.
I'll just go against the drain. Juan Aurich will not record 3 wins in a row.

NOTE: Lines are from bookmaker.com

Week 18: Saturday. My picks

2011-04-28T21:10:00.000-07:00

1) EPL - Wigan v Everton: bet Everton PK -130

Everton is in the midst of its usual end-of-season flourish, and have gone a league-high 58 games since losing back-to-back matches (lost to MU last weekend).
Everton have one the 3 best defences on the road of the league. Wigan have converted the lowest percentage of shots into goals, just 10%.
Everton PK of all league matches between both sides=9/11 (win=6, draw=3; win away=60%, draw away=20%).

2) EPL - Sunderland v Fulham: bet under 2 +115

Sunderland have the worst shooting accuracy in the league this season, hitting the target with just 37% of their attempts.
No specialist forwards in the home side because of injuries. Sessegnon, played as midfielder until last weekend will replace Gyan. Malbranque, another midfielder will replace Wellbeck.
9 of 13 EPL matches between both sides have ended with less than 3 goals (less than 2 goals=6; 2 goals=3)
Last 5 matches between them have ended with 1 or none goals.

3) EPL - Blackpool v Stoke: bet over 2.5 -140

Stoke have gone 7 games scoring in all competitions (league=5, FA Cup=2), with a converted shots rate in the league of 23% average. I don't see them not scoring against the worst defence of the league, without a single clean sheet playing at home.
On the other side, no team in the league had stopped Blackpool of scoring.

4) EPL - Chelsea v Tottenham: bet Chelsea -200

Massive game for both teams. Home side is still fighting for the tittle, hoping Arsenal get something from their game against MU on Sunday. Visitors need a win to get want to 4th spot in the table and play Champions League football next season.
Chelsea is the in form side of the league at the moment
On the other hand, Spurs have recorded only one win in their last 10 matches (all competitions: league=7, champions=3), their worst run of the season.
They didn't score in 5 of this last 10 matches. Tomorrow they might lose a little more attacking power with Bale force to play back in defende due to first choice left-back Assou-Ekotto injury.
Spurs only got 1 point visiting MU and Chelsea in the last 5 seasons (9 games).

5) PERU - Inti Gas v Cobresol: bet on Cobresol not losing the game or under 2 -110

Many people see this one as a non-brainer, just bet on Inti Gas to win: unbeaten at home (2,700 metres above sea level)=80% of points; second best defence at home: clean sheets=80%; winning at home is key plan (check last 2 seasons). But I think there are reasons to not play that: visitors are the best side on the road so far, second best defence and seem to have no problems playing on altitude (they beat Leon de Huanuco and Melgar); and they are draw specialists .
Why the total bet? Inti Gas face this one with 50% less of goalscoring power because of injuries and suspensions. Mendoza, Perez, Cruzado and Moisela will not play: 3 goals, 2 assists, 1 goal, 1 goal respectively. (Total goals so far=10, 3 converted by penalty kicks, 2 personal plays, 1 rebound, 4 assists)

6) PERU - Alianza Lima v CNI: bet over 2.5 +125

Games between both teams usually ended with 3 or more goals (6/8 matches)
Home side need to change their latest aproach to games in order to end their winless run of 4 matches. Actually their last 4 matches were against teams with the best defences of the league so far.
Alianza Lima has recorded 8 games with less than 3 goals in a row.
There is a chance we can get it at 2. Hope so.

NOTE: Lines are from bookmaker.com

Week 17: Weekend. My picks

2011-04-28T20:57:00.000-07:00

This weekend I have only EPL (English Premier League) picks:

1) Manchester United v Everton: bet MU -240

MU's next 5 games are very important to make their season: Everton (EPL)- Schalke (Champions)- Arsenal (EPL)- Schalke (Champions)- Chelsea (EPL). If they fail to get 3 points and keep the 6 points gap with second place teams, Chelsea and Arsenal, they will give live to their title rivals. This is a massive game for manager Ferguson and company, and I bet they will deliver. Everton have been missing several regular starters, playing fringe players in 5 positions (midfielders and forwards).

2) Tottenham v WBA: bet TOTTENHAM -175

They really need these points in order to achieve their main goal of the season: qualify for next season Champions League. Of their remainder 6 games of the season: WBA (tomorrow's rival) and Blackpool are highlighted as the "easy" ones, because they got promoted last May. (both teams are ETTS material).

3) Chelsea v WHU: bet CHELSEA -415:

ETTS did not fail last Wednesday, when we make some bucks against Birmingham, so Chelsea arrives to this fixture being a good TT.

On the other hand, WHU is (also) a relegation zone team this season, poor on the road (27%), 0 points playing the big 3, third worst defence of the league (#15 on the road), 6% of clean sheets on the road and not a good attacking force (#15).

I can play the spread in this one. Until Thursday the number was 1.5, now it is 2.

4) Wolverhampton v Fulham: bet draw +215

It is Fulham special: 50% of total matches played on the road; 80% on the road vs teams with e<40% (wolves alike).

*Fulham have won only 1 of their last 34 EPL away matches.

5) Wolverhampton v Fulham: bet under 2.5 -145.

Wolves really need to take something of this one, so I am thinking they will try to do it the way they have done before: looking for a clean sheet first and wait for the opportunity to score and defend the lead until the final whistle. The visitors are an u2.5 team, specially on the road (69% this season; 71% of last 7 away matches).

6) Aston Villa v Newcastle: bet draw +235:

I don't see this Stoke side losing 7 matches in a row on the road. They are boost by the unexpected 5-0 win of last weekend.

Week 17: Wednesday. My picks

2011-04-28T20:19:00.000-07:00

1) EPL- Chelsea v Birmingham: bet Chelsea win

Chelsea is playing as a TOP TEAM* this season: they are 3rd in the league (MU and Arsenal, ETT also, are in front of them) and have not lost a point to any of the teams used to fight to not be relegated.
Chelsea is playing as a top team NOW: unbeaten in the last 7 league matches, topping the current form table (last 6 matches) with Everton. They are also topping the table of only 2011 matches
Birmingham play to not be relegated the most of the season, so they are ETTS material also this season.
Birmingham is poor on the road (29%), they have not got any points from visiting a TT (history remains the same this season)
Birmingham have the second worst attacking force of the league this season
Birmingham have a bad defence playing on the road (clean sheets=20%)

* I have a system for top teams: ETTS (European Top Teams System)

2) EPL- Tottenham v Arsenal: bet over 2.5 -120

Both teams are "open play" teams.
Arsenal is the better attack on the road
Last 10 league derbies: o2.5= 80%
Very important game for both of them, so i am thinking they'll play the way they know better ("open play")
Both teams concede almost a goal per game
I just like it!

2011

2011-01-03T15:07:00.000-08:00

2010 has not been the year I dreamed about, so I like to think, as many of us, that I can start over again and try to make my things happen.
Good thing is I started this new year with a perfect gameday: 4 English Premier League bets, 3 wins, 1 tie and $6 profit.

Let's see what happen within next 52 weeks. Hope to keep this pace.

Predictions Week 30

2010-07-23T11:20:00.001-07:00

This weekend I will bet games from PERU 2010 professional football tournament. I'm living in Peru, so any ko time is peruvian time.

Saturday matches:

1) Jose Galvez v Alianza Lima - ko at 3:30 pm
I bet on the under 2.5 goals.

2) Inti Gas v Total Chalaco - ko at 3:30 pm
I bet on the over 2.5 goals.

3) CNI v Spoting Cristal - ko at 20:00 pm
I bet totals again, over 2.5 goals.

Sunday matches: ko at 3:30 pm (all four)

4) U v Sport Huancayo.
I bet on the home side, U win. Parlay it, it is too expensive to risk on it straight.

5) Juan Aurich v Cienciano.
I bet on the home side because of the many problemas the visitors have, Aurich win.

6) Melgar v Alianza Sullana.
I bet on the underdogs, they won't lose. Alianza Sullana PK +350.

7) Deportivo San Martin v Cesar Vallejo.
I bet on the under 2.5 goals.

I am going to parlay Shakhtar Donest win (Ukraine Premier League) with one of these peruvian picks.
Good luck!

Predictions Week 29

2010-07-16T21:14:00.000-07:00

This weekend I will bet games from PERU 2010 proffessional football tournament.

Saturday matches:

1) Leon de Huanuco v Deportivo San Martin - 1:30 pm peruvian time.
I bet the under .25 goals.

2) Sporting Cristal v Inti Gas - 3:00 pm peruvian time.
I bet on the home side.

3) Alianza Lima v CNI - 3:45 pm peruvian time.
I bet totals again, over 2.5 goals.

I am going to parlay a Russian Premier League match: Zenit St. Peterborough win, with SC win.

Sunday matches:

4) Sport Huancayo v Melgar - 1:15 pm peruvian time.
I bet the draw.

5) Total Chalaco v Juan Aurich - 3:00 pm peruvian time.
I bet on the visitors, Aurich PK.

6) Cesar Vallejo v U - 3:30 pm peruvian time.
I bet the under 2.5 and also on the visitors, U PK.

Good luck!

Predicciones Perú 2010. Jornada 23

2010-07-09T19:49:00.000-07:00

León de Huánuco v Cienciano.
Menos de 2.5 goles; empate

Poder ofensivo disminuído: El equipo local tiene 2 bajas muy importantes. El delantero Perea, autor de 12 de los 33 goles de su equipo, y el volante creativo Rodas, autor de gran cantidad de los pases gol del equipo y responsable de todas las jugadas de ataque con pelota parada, arma importante del equipo de Franco Navarro. Por otro lado, los jugadores del equipo del Cusco llegan a este partido con una semana más sin entrenar por falta de pagos. Viajaron a Huánuco para afrontar el partido, asesorados por la Agremiación de Futbolistas, con la amenaza de renunciar todos el lunes si no reciben sus pagos.
Factor X: Por alguna extraña razón, los jugadores peruanos (impagos) no bajan su rendimiento en este tipo de circunstancias, lo que me anima a pensar podría repetirse el partido León-José Gálvez de hace 2 semanas, el cual terminó empatado 1-1. Cienciano llega casi en las mismas condiciones a las en las que llegó José Gálvez. La diferencia está en el local, con bajas sensibles en su ataque y suplentes con pocos minutos de juego.

Sport Huancayo v Sporting Cristal.
Sport Huancayo gana.

El mejor local: 8 partidos ganados y 2 empates. El nuevo DT es el técnico que dirigió al equipo durante 33 partidos el año pasado consiguiendo la clasificación a la Copa Sudamericana.
El mejor jugando en la altura: Ningún otro equipo de altura ha conseguido los resultados de los de Huancayo. El año pasado también fueron los mejores.
Mal momento de la SC: el equipo visitante consiguió solo 5 puntos de 24 posibles, 4 en el San Martín y solo 1 de visita. Si hacemos una tabla de posiciones con los últimos 7 partidos del campeonato, Cristal empata el último lugar con José Gálvez.

Alianza Atlético de Sullana v CNI.
Empate

Relegation battle: Both teams figth to stay one more year on the premier division.
El empate es su resultado más frecuente: Los de Sullana son los que más empataron en el torneo, 9 empates, 5 jugando de local, todas bajo la dirección técnica de Cardama.
CNI viene mucho mejor: Si hacemos una tabla de posiciones con los últimos 7 partidos, la visita aparecería en la tercera posición con 57% de los puntos, y los locales antepenúltimos con solos 33%. En estos 7 partidos los de Iquitos, lograron victorias ante Sport Boys y la U.

Melgar v Inti Gas.
Melgar gana.

El efecto Jurado: El nuevo DT llegó con la idea expresa de avanzar en la tabla aprovechando su localía con altura. Seis partidos después puede decirse que lo ha conseguido, perdiendo solo de visita contra el mejor CNI de lo que va del campeonato y Alianza Lima.
No suma de visitante: Ha perdido los últimos 7 partidos que jugó de visita, 2 de ellos con goleadas en la altura, contra León de Huánuco y Sport Huancayo. Estos resultados lo hacen el peor equipo de altura visitando a otros equipos de altura.
Me gusta como juega el Melgar de Jurado.

U v Alianza Lima.
U no pierde.

La U está en medio de una fuerte crisis: Hace 10 días renunció Reynoso, el DT que llevó a la U al campeonato del año pasado, y a ser el equipo que no perdió un solo partido en la Copa Libertadores 2010. Esta decisión me hace pensar que la situación económica del club es realmente grave.
Alianza viene mejor: Si hacemos una tabla de posiciones con los últimos 7 partidos, son primeros con 67% de los puntos.
El año pasado fue 4-0 en partidos a favor de la U, 5-1 en goles. El equipo todavía es el de Reynoso. No chance for the blanquiazules, they could not even deal with Boys in el Callao 2 weeks ago.

DESCENTRALIZADO 2010: PREDICCIONES DE LA FECHA 17

2010-06-04T12:44:00.000-07:00

1) LEÓN DE HUÁNUCO v INTI GAS.
Apuesto menos de 2.5 goles.

Se enfrentan la mejor defensa jugando como local contra la mejor defensa visitante.
Solo hubo 1 gol en 5 de los 7 partidos que el equipo huanuqueño jugó como local.
Solo hubo solo 1 gol en los 4 últimos partidos que Inti Gas jugó de visita.
No se esperan cambios en sus maneras de jugar: los de Huánuco presentarán su acostumbrado 4-4-2 y los visitantes 4-5-1.
No hay bajas de consideración: en la visita Regalado reemplazaría al volante mixto titular Mendoza.

2) SPORT BOYS v CNI.
Apuesto menos de 2.5 goles.

Partido entre 2 equipos que luchan por no bajar a la Segunda División.
Ambos equipos ya despidieron al DT con quien empezaron el campeonato.
En ningún caso, los equipos lograron más puntos que con sus respectivos anteriores DT.
El Boys de Company defiende mejor que el de Drago: recibieron 2 goles en 4 partidos en el Callao, antes recibían por lo menos un gol por partido.
El CNI de "Charapa" Salazar mantiene su bajo promedio de gol jugando de visitante.
No hay bajas de consideración en ambos equipos. En Boys vuelven los experimentados zagueros Marengo y Vásquez.
Pienso que el equipo más débil del campeonato es el CNI, porque su juventud y poca experiencia en primera. Si el Boys no pierde la confianza, mañana ganan.

3) ALIANZA SULLANA v ALIANZA LIMA.
Apuesto menos de 2.5 goles.

Pienso que el regreso de Teddy Cardama como DT elevará los ánimos de los jugadores. Él armó el plantel de este año y conoce el Club mejor que cualquier otro DT.
Cardama plantea partidos cerrados a los grandes del fútbol peruano (U y Alianza): 8 de los útimos 11 partidos resultaron en marcadores con no más de 1 gol.
Los locales juegan para salir del último lugar en la tabla y la visita para acortar la distancia con el primero en la tabla, la Universidad San Martín.
El DT de Alianza anunció la alineación para mañana y se observa cambio de sistema: 4-4-2 otra vez.

4) U v JUAN AURICH.
Apuesto menos de 2.5 goles y U no pierde.

La U ha perdido 3 partidos de sus últimos 18 (incluída la Libertadores), todos en la altura.
Aurich de visita juega a defender el cero y contragolpear. Esta receta solo le dio resultado contra el peor Cienciano de los últimos años, Melgar y el debilísimo CNI. No los veo sacándole un punto al campeón.

5) DEPORTIVO SAN MARTÍN v CIENCIANO.
Apuesto USMP gana.

Duelo táctico entre Aníbal Ruiz y el jugador-entrenador Sergio Ibarra.
Pienso que el "efecto Checho" termina de desvanecerse contra el indiscutible mejor equipo del campeonato.
Efecto Checho=(se fue Ospina) + (2 victorias en altura contra Alianza brokenhearted por la Libertadores y Total con defensa juvenil) + victoria sobre Cristal que pasa por su peor momento (6 puntos de 18 posibles).

6) SPORT HUANCAYO v JOSÉ GÁLVEZ.
Apuesto Sport Huancayo gana.

El equipo huancaíno es el mejor local del campeonato: 90% de efectividad jugando a 3 200 msnm. Por otro lado, Gálvez solo ha conseguido 10% de efectividad como visitante (2 empates, 5 derrotas) .
José Gálvez enfrenta su primer partido del año en la altura con bajas y dudas que dejarían al equipo casi sin delanteros y además sin suplentes no juveniles.
Huancayo de local es muy ofensivo y la altura de esta ciudad, según los jugadores, es más difícil que la del Cusco.

7) MELGAR v SPORTING CRISTAL.
NO apuesto nada.

No tengo idea de cómo va a plantear el partido el nuevo técnico del equipo arequipeño.
Los visitantes pasan por su peor momento del campeonato.

My Saturday picks (June 30, 2009)

2009-05-29T23:31:00.000-07:00

1) FA CUP FINAL PREDICTION:

Chelsea v Everton. I see Chelsea a better team than the Merseysiders. They kicked the ass off the new Champions League's champion but they got the referee. I will bet on Chelsea, no doubt.

2) DFB POKAL FINAL PREDICTION:

Bayer Leverkusen v Werder Bremen. Both teams did not have a good season. Both ended at the middle of the final table. This is their last opportunity to win silverware this season. I think this is going to be a typical Bundesliga game: lots of offensive plays so I will bet on the over 2.5 goals. I also like Werder Bremen.

3) PERU- BOLOGNESI v INTI GAS PREDICTION:
I will bet the under 2.5 goals

4) PERU- UNIVERSIDAD CESAR VALLEJO v UNIVERSIDAD SAN MARTIN PREDICTION:
San Martin will not lose. I also like the under 2.5 goals.

5) PERU- U v ALIANZA SULLANA PREDICTION:

The visitors manager said that they have around 11 players who will miss the clash because of injury problems and suspensions. I think the home side will win this one. It is an expensive bet so I recommend to parlay it.

6) PERU-SPORTING CRISTAL v CNI PREDICTION:

The visitors have 7 games without a win, they just sacked the manager on last Sunday, they had fired 8 players and now they are looking for their third manager of the season. I see the informality of the club will continue charging themselves more points in the tournament. I think they have no option against teams as Sporting Cristal (even if they goalgetter is not playing because of suspension). I bet on SC. It is an expensive bet also, so I will parlay it.

7) PERU-JUAN AURICH v TOTAL CHALACO PREDICTION:

The league leader against the better team in my current table*. I am expecting a great game plenty of offense, leading to more than 3 goals. I will bet the over 2.5 goals.

*I had copy the current table idea used to analyze the English Premier League

MIS PREDICCIONES PARA LA FECHA 15 DEL DESCENTRALIZADO 2009 (PERU)

2009-05-22T11:10:00.000-07:00

La fecha 15 se juega el sábado 23 y el domingo 24 de mayo, 4 partidos cada día. Mis predicciones para los partidos del sábado:

1) MI PREDICCIÓN PARA INTI GAS x ALIANZA LIMA
El dato relevante del partido es que se juega a más de 2,700 msnm. Por eso, la visita no es tan favorita, a pesar de ser puntero. El local no es favorito porque no tiene muchos argumentos ofensivos, y enfrentará a una buena defensa, pero está invicto en su cancha. Lo sucedido el fds pasado en el Cusco no es normal en este equipito aplicado en defensa. Apostaré el under 2.5 goals. Si quieren que me la juegue por un equipo: Inti Gas no pierde.

*El dato que podría tener relevancia: AL no registra buenos resultados en la altura, en el 2007 y 2008 no ganó nunca, y obtuvo solo 17% y 8% de los puntos (respectivamente) ; sin embargo, este año ya le ganó a Melgar 1-0. P

2) MI PREDICCIÓN PARA ALIANZA SULLANA x SPORT ANCASH
Duelo de coleros. No tienen mucho gol y tienen buenas defensas*. Esto me lleva a pensar un partido con pocas ocasiones de gol y apostar el under 2.5 goals. Pero la renuncia número 2 del todavía entrenador del equipo ancashino me huele mal, y apostaré por el equipo local, que viene jugando bien, vuelve a su cancha, y podrán contar con Saulo Aponte, su jugador más ofensivo. Gana Alianza Atlético de Sullana.

*No se dejen engañar por los números grandes: de los 23 goles en contra del Ancash, encajaron 12 en las 3 primeras fechas, cuando eran dirigidos por otro entrenador; es decir, solo 11 en la era Ferrín, o sea, un gol en contra por partido. Y los locales tienen 27 goles en contra, pero solo encajaron 5 jugando en su cancha.

3) MI PREDICCIÓN PARA BOLOGNESI x SPORT HUANCAYO
Asumo que después del papelón defensivo en Arequipa, el equipo local volverán a alinear con 4 en el fondo (lo verificaré con la alineación titular). Por otro lado, me parece que en el equipo visitante, el nuevo entrenador no ha caído bien. Estoy seguro que con el anterior profesor no recibían 4 en el Monumental, y le hubieran ganado por más de un gol al equipo B de José Gálvez, y no hubieran entrado en el ritmo que le puso Cristal en el segundo tiempo (ellos te mataban en el segundo tiempo). Además, habrá cambio táctico de por medio: dejan los 3 al fondo por un 4-4-2. Me la juego por el local, no pierde. Le pongo un bolito a Barros para los anotadores.

4) MI PREDICCIÓN PARA SPORTING CRISTAL x CESAR VALLEJO

5) MI PREDICCIÓN PARA CNI x USMP
El equipo visita tiene una delantera muy goleadora, por encima del promedio del campeonato. Y el equipo local es el que peor está jugando en las últimas fechas. La Universidad San Martín no pierde. Pueden encontrar esta apuesta a -115. Mejor, imposible.

6) MI PREDICCIÓN PARA U x GÁLVEZ
Para mi lo importante del partido no es si juega Donny Neyra o no. Lo importante es si en el arco crema se para Fernández. El muchacho Llontop se orinó el domingo pasado y no dará confianza. Si tapa Fernández, la U gana. En cualquier otro escenario, me abstengo.

PREDICCIONES PARA LA FECHA 14 DEL CAMPEONATO PERUANO DESCENTRALIZADO 2009

2009-05-16T11:46:00.000-07:00

El sábado 16 de mayo se jugarán 2 partidos:

1) ALIANZA LIMA x CNI.

Si nos fijamos en las últimas5 fechas, la visita es el peor equipo del campeonato. He visto 3 de sus últimos 4 partidos, y no veo como puedan ganarle a un equipo tan superior en plantilla. Los buenos minutos del último partido contra Total Chalaco son mentirosos, porque los locales se durmieron después del 2-0 antes d elos 20 minutos. Tiene muchos jugadores debutantes en primera, y muchos en la línea descendente de su carrera profesional. Seguramente AL no ganará pero difícilmente lo perderá. . Apuesto under 2.5 goals, pensando que el entrenador Cubilla no saldrá a jugarlo de igual a igual, y que el local seguirá con los problemas de definición. También apostaré por el local en un parlay.

2) MELGAR x BOLOGNESI.

El equipo local tiene bajas importantes para este encuentro: su principal delantero, "Cachete" Zúñiga, y el "Sapito" Pereira, central titular. Los problemas por lesión son tales, que Ferrari dejaría su puesto en el mediocampo para bajar a la defensa. La visita viene trabajando en su recuperación después de 11 partidos sin ganar hundiéndose en el último lugar de la tabla de posiciones. Las buenas noticias son la vuelta de su principal delantero: Barros, y la llegada de refuerzos: un el delantero Maldonado y los hermanos Ojeda que seguramente no jugarán todavía. Apuesto under 2.5 goals.

Barclays Premier League 08/09 Matchday 37 Predictions - Saturday games

2009-05-15T17:52:00.001-07:00

1) Manchester United x Arsenal Prediction:
I picture in my head an offensive game, completely different than the last one between these two sides (Champions League semifinals 2nd leg). MU is playing at Old Trafford needing just one point to retain their Premier League title, and the visitors have a revenge to play. As Arsenal boss Wenger said, Arsenal is as good as MU when it is about the passing and quality in the final third (both teams have scored similar amounts of goals), but defensively there is a difference. I will bet the over 2.5 goals.

2) Bolton Wanderers x Hull City United Prediction:

This is a vital match for both teams. The visitors dropped to the relegation zone last Monday and maths says there is a possibily of relegation for the home side. I wrote posts before that the visitors will lose their premier league status this season, now they are in the relegation zone for the first time this season, losing their last five matches. Nonetheless, they have played against better teams lately than the home side. I will bet the under 2.5 goals.

3) Middlesbrough x Aston Villa Prediction:

I had been watching Villa's last matches and I saw a very offensive team without luck. We all know the home side is desperate for a win and that they are pretty bad at defense when it is about attacking.Newcastle showed it to us last week. I just like the over 2.5 goals.

4) Stoke City x Wigan Athletic Prediction:
I had read that the Stoke manager should name the squad who beated Hull last week, and that the Wigan manager may opt to freshen up his side after the match with MU. Wigan is the worst team in the current form table and I do not see them winning this one. I will bet on Stoke City.

5) Tottenham Hotspurs x Manchester City Prediction:
Unfortunately, we will not watch on the field Lennon, Palacios (Spurs), Robinho and Shaun Wright Phillips (MC). They are all out of this game because of injuries. Anyways this will be a great battle for European football next season. I will bet the home side.

6) Newcastle United x Fulham Prediction:
Fulham is playing great football losing only two of their last 6 matches, these two against MU and Chelsea. Newcastle is playing really bad. I think it will not be enough with Shearer spirit boost. They finally won a match, but there was the weak Boro. Fulham is far away from Boro. I will bet the visitors will not lose and the over 2.5 goals.

7) Everton x West Ham United Prediction:
I just like the Merseysiders. Bet the under 2.5 goals, it is very likely.

DESCENTRALIZADO 2009: MIS PRONÓSTICOS PARA LA FECHA 12

2009-05-09T10:22:00.000-07:00

El sábado 9 de mayo se juegan 6 encuentros correspondientes a la fecha 12 del campeonato Descentralizado 2009. La jornada empezó a las 11 am con el partido entre Total Chalaco y la San Martín, que ahora lleva 67 minutos de juego y yo celebro mi sexto golazo del día porque el local gana 3-1.

1) MI PREDICCIÓN PARA EL INTI GAS x SPORT ANCASH
Ambos equipos juegan fútbol atacando poco. Ambos equipos encajan pocos goles (el Ancash de Ferrín tiene una defensa bastanta férrea). Ambos equipos juegan bastante feo. Mi apuesta es menos de 2.5 goles.

2) MI PREDICCIÓN PARA EL BOLOGNESI x JOSÉ GÁLVEZ
El equipo local es el peor del campeonato: último en la tabla, no cuenta con victorias en 11 fechas jugadas. La visita va primero en la tabla y consiguió todos los puntos jugados en sus últimos 4 partidos. Como es lógico, las casas de apuestas tienen como favoritos al club chimbotano y lo lógico sería que no se equivoquen. Mi apuesta es menos de 2.5 goles, porque creo que la visita sentirá las ausencias de Juan Cominges, Neyra y Llanos (expulsado en el partido contra Cristal) y el local empezará a corregir las goleadas de este campeonato aplicándose en la defensa.

3) MI PREDICCIÓN PARA EL U x SPORT HUANCAYO
Apostaré por la U porque creo que el nuevo dt de la visita, el tal Cubilla, dirige como habla: horrible. Creo que el cambio de técnico afectará a este equipo que venía jugando muy bien y logró posicionarse entre los 5 primeros del campeonato.

4) MI PREDICCIÓN PARA EL CRISTAL x MELGAR
Simplemente apostaré más de 2.5 goles. La defensa del equipo local ha mostrado serios problemas y hoy les faltará el que ordena y arreglaba esos problemas: Villalta. Además, Melgar trabaja mucho las pelotas paradas y le tengo fe a "Cachete" Zúñiga y al "Sapito" Pereira.

5) MI PREDICCIÓN PARA EL JUAN AURICH x VALLEJO
Apuesto menos de 2.5 goles.

Buena suerte y mucha salud

EPL 08/09 Matchday 36 Predictions - Saturday games

2009-05-09T06:57:00.000-07:00

1) Rovers x Portsmouth Prediction: under 2.5 goals
2) Bolton x Sunderland Prediction: under 2.5 goals
3) Everton x Spurs Prediction: over 2.5 goals
4) WBA x Wigan Prediction: bet the home side
5) Hull x Stoke Prediction: Stoke does not lose
6) Fulham x Aston Villa Prediction: under 2.5 goals
7) WHU x Liverpool Prediction: under 2.5 goals and bet the Reds

Good luck and be happy!

COMPLETO LAS PREDICCIONES DE LA FECHA 11 DEL CAMPEONATO PERUANO 2009

2009-05-03T08:49:00.001-07:00

Mis predicciones para los partidos del domingo 3 de mayo, cumple de "el brother", son las siguientes:

3) CIENCIANO x ALIANZA SULLANA: gana el local
4) SPORT HUANCAYO x AURICH: menos de 2.5 goles y me juego unas fichitas por el local
5) ANCASH x CNI: menos de 2.5 goles para este juego con dt antifutbol
6) JOSE GALVEZ x SC: menos de 2.5 goles para este partido cerrado
7) AL x TOTAL CHALACO: empate. Si Montano no hablaba en la semana, lo ganaban, pero ahora se armo el partido.
8) SAN MARTIN x INTI GAS: menos de 2.5 goles porque el local sale con suplentes.

Buena suerte

DESCENTRALIZADO 2009: MIS PRONÓSTICOS PARA LA FECHA 11

2009-05-02T14:50:00.000-07:00

El sábado 2 de mayo se juegan 2 de los 8 encuentros correspondientes a la fecha 11 del torneo profesional de fútbol peruano.

1) UNIVERSIDAD CÉSAR VALLEJO x BOLOGNESI DE TACNA:
El equipo local es mucho más que el último de la tabla. Que venga de perder sus tres últimas presentaciones, no le quita posibilidades. Apostaré por Vallejo.

2) FBC MELGAR x U:
Melgar es un equipo sin fútbol, de esos que juegan por el resultado. La U no tiene gol y sin Solano casi no tiene fútbol. Apostaré el under 2.5 goals.

EPL 08/09 Matchday 35 Predictions - Saturday games

2009-05-02T03:32:00.001-07:00

These are my picks for today games:

1) Middlesbrough x MU: u2.5 goals -115
2) Portsmouth x Arsenal: u2.5 -110
3) Stoke City x WHU: u2.5 -160
4) Tottenham Hotspurs x WBA: -1 -150
5) MC x Blackburn Rovers: draw +225
6) Wigan x Bolton: Wigan EV
7) Chelsea x Fulham: u2.5 -130

All the lines are from www.bookmaker.com

EPL 08/09 MATCHDAY 34 PREDICTIONS -SATURDAY GAMES

2009-04-25T06:10:00.000-07:00

1) BOLTON x ASTON VILLA PREDICTION:
Villa had only made 3 points of 24 possible,with a bad defense and lots of goal chances not converted. On the other hand, I had Bolton as an open football team that had conceded 11 goals in their last 6 games. My bet is on the over 2.5 goals.

2) WEST HAM UNITED x CHELSEA PREDICTION:
This is going to be a tough game, with both teams very solid in defense and Chelsea resting some key players for the Champions League game on Wednesday. I will bet the under 2.5 goals.

3) EVERTON x MANCHESTER CITY PREDICTION:
I really like the home side football. They are a very good team and I think they will also win this one (100% on second round home games). They will miss Jo, who is not available because of the loan contract terms, but there is Fellaini, Cahill, Osman and Saha to score.

4) FULHAM x STOKE CITY PREDICTION:
I like Fulham football, so I will bet on them.

5) WEST BROMWICH ALBION x SUNDERLAND PREDICTION:
Massive game. The last 2 outings of the home side had been very open, conceding 6 goals as visitors. I think they are going to risk everything today because time is getting short and they are losing their Premier League status. On the other hand, the visitors had not lose against a promoted team. I will bet the over 2.5 goals.

6) HULL CITY x LIVERPOOL PREDICTION:
I wrote last week I see the home side relegated. Liverpool is my team on this one, and I will also bet the over 2.5 goals.

7) MANCHESTER UNITED x TOTTENHAM HOTSPURS PREDICTION:
I just like the under 2.5 goals.

Good luck and be happy!

EPL 08/09 Matchday 33 Predictions - Saturday games

2009-04-17T21:45:00.000-07:00

1) SUNDERLAND x HULL CITY PREDICTION:

This is a relegation encounter. Both teams are doing bad lately. The home side has lost their last 4 games and the visitors have won just 2 points in 4 games (both at home). Nonetheless, the Black Cats played against better teams than their Saturday opponents (see Table 1).I see Hull City struggling in relegation zone after this weekend games, because of their poor second round football. Sunderland win is my bet and Cisse scores. If you like to bet the totals, do the under 2.5 goals. Both teams are between the poorest firepowers of the second round games.

Table 1

Sunderland last 4	Hull last 4
Sunderland x Wigan: L	Hull x Newcastle: D
Man City x Sunderland: L	Wigan x Hull: L
WHU x Sunderland: L	Hull x Portsmouth: D
Sunderland x Man United: L	Boro x Hull: L

Teams in red: teams involved in relegation. Teams in blue: top four team

W=win, L=lose, D=draw

2) STOKE CITY x BLACKBURN ROVERS PREDICTION:

This is another relegation encounter (the home side manager said on the media they are not safe despite being 6 points from relegation zone with 6 games to play). Stoke is the in form team of the ones involved in relegation (see Table 2), but Rovers is doing good too (they lost 2 visiting Arsenal and Liverpool). I like the visitors, so I will bet they not losing. If you like totals, go with the under 2.5 goals. I think it is going to be a very close game.

Table 2

Teams	%	Last 5 games
Stoke City	67	W-L-W-W-D
Blackburn Rovers	47	W-L-D-W-L
Portsmouth	40	L-D-W-D-D
Manchester City	40	W-L-W-L-L
Hull City	33	W-D-L-D-L
Bolton	27	L-L-D-W-L
Middlesbrough	27	L-D-L-L-W
Newcastle United	13	L-D-L-L-D
Sunderland	7	D-L-L-L-L

Team involved in relegation= less than 40 points

W=win, L=lose, D=draw

3) PORTSMOUTH x BOLTON PREDICTION:

Another relegation encounter. I like to bet over 2.5 goals on Bolton games. Two reasons: they have taken just two points from a possible 18 on the road, condecing 13 goals and scoring 6; they have kept just one clean sheet in 20 league outings.

4) MIDDLESBROUGH x FULHAM PREDICTION:

The home side has a must win game against the Cottagers. They know time is getting short and only have six games to get saved. They also know they have to play against Arsenal, Manchester United and Aston Villa. I will bet the over 2.5 or 2 goals. Because Boro is playing open games lately and Fulham is playing good football.

5) ASTON VILLA x WEST HAM UNITED PREDICTION:

If Agbonlahor and Heskey are in the starting lineup, I will bet on Villa. If not, I will go with the under 2.5 goals.

CHAMPIONS LEAGUE 08/09 QUARTER FINAL PREDICTIONS

2009-04-07T08:56:00.000-07:00

Tuesday 7th April 2009 matches:

1) VILLARREAL x ARSENAL PREDICTION
Arsenal is withour a epl defeat in 17 games. They are very strong in defense, scoring 1,5 goals per game, and boosted by Cesc, Adebayor and Walcott returns from injuries. On the other hand, Villarreal is fourth in the league, 24 points behind the leaders, and it is not the good team of last season. I think the Gunners will not lose and they will be home with an away goal in the bag.

2) MANCHESTER UNITED x PORTO PREDICTION
I watched Cristiano Ronaldo last Sunday boosted by their 2 goals, and I think he will continue raising his confidence today by showing us why he was the best player of 2008. Porto already lose against an english side this season, it was a 4-0 defeat by Arsenal, so I think they will play strong defense. But MU will unlock it. MU win.

Wednesday 8th April 2009 matches:

3) BARCELONA x BAYERN MÜNICH PREDICTION
Barcelona is doing great this season. They have a lead of 6 points over the second place in the spanish league, they have the best firepower, 85 goals, and the best defense, only 24 goals allowed in 29 games. On the other hand, Bayern Münich is fifth in the Bundesliga, which might be seen as a problem for a side used to get that silverware. I think the visitors will miss Lucio and Van Buyten tomorrow. It seems Breno, who will play tomorrow with Demichelis, is not good enough for the likes of Henry, Eto and Messi. I bet on the catalan side.

4) LIVERPOOL x CHELSEA PREDICTION
Great game. I just like the Reds, so I will bet on them.

FYI

2009-04-07T01:28:00.001-07:00

Since I started posting this blog I had produced 62 football predictions. I won 39, lose 18 and tied 5, which means I got 71% accuracy.

I had been more accurated on the WCQ (World Cup Qualifier) Southamerica games and the EPL (English Premier League) games with 85% and 76% respectively.

Tournament	Win	Lose	Tie	Accuracy	Total
EPL	14	5	2	76%	21
WCQ Southamerica	10	2	1	85%	13
Italia Serie A	7	4		64%	11
Peru	3	2	2	71%	7
Champions League	2	2		50%	4
FA Cup	2	2		50%	4
Spain La Liga	1			100%	1
Carling Cup		1		0%	1

	39	18	5	71%	62

Note: I am considering a tie as a win based on the fact that I did not lose any money.

EPL 08/09 Matchday 31 Predictions - Sunday games

2009-04-05T06:42:00.000-07:00

1) Everton x Wigan Prediction: I like the Liverpool side. I will go with them.

2) Manchester United x Aston Villa Prediction: The home side had lost firepower with Rooney and Berbatov not available for today, and Tevez is tired because of the game in La Paz on Wednesday. Remember Cristiano Ronaldo is not in form this season. On the other hand, I think the visitors have the mission of no losing against the best team of the tournament, so they will be focus on their defense. I will bet the under 2.5 goals.

EPL 08/09 Matchday 31 Predictions - Saturday games

2009-04-04T00:16:00.001-07:00

1) Rovers x Tottenham Prediction: A must-win-game for the home side against an in form "Spurs". u2.5 goals

2) Fulham x Liverpool Prediction: Bet on the Reds, they are playing amazing football.

3) Arsenal x MC Prediction: Go with the Gunners. No doubt, Adebayor and Cesc are back.

4) Bolton x Middlesbrough Prediction: Boro made the trip knowing time is getting short, so they will add Afonso Alves to their offense. I will go with the over 2 goals.

5) Hull City x Portsmouth Prediction: I see Hull as one of the weakest team of the last 5 matchdays, so I will bet Portsmouth does not lose.

6) Newcastle x Chelsea Prediction: under 2.5 goals

7) WBA x Stoke City Prediction: Both teams have very poor firepower, so I will bet on the under 2.5 goals.

8) WHU x Sunderland Prediction: I am going with the stats, u2 goals it is.

WCQ SOUTHAFRICA 2010 PREDICTIONS-SOUTHAMERICA-MATCHDAY 12

2009-03-31T14:20:00.000-07:00

Tuesday 31th March 2009 match

1) VENEZUELA x COLOMBIA PREDICTION:

The home side is used to playing open games at their fields (2 goals/game at home), but Colombia has one of the best defenses of the tournament, just as good as Argentina and Paraguay (the Santiago episode is unusual). On the other hand, Venezuela has the worse home defense of the tournament: -2.6 goals/game, but Colombia has one of the poorest attacks (6 goals in 11 games) and had scored only one goal on away games. I am going to bet the under 2.5 goals.

Wednesday 1th April 2009 matches

2) BOLIVIA x ARGENTINA PREDICTION:

Argentina's games in La Paz usually had more than 2 goals, so I will go with the stats and bet the over 2.5. Bolivia is the team who has conceded more goals than any other side in the tournament (the second if we count only home games), and I am very confident about this Maradona's Argentina offense power.

3) ECUADOR x PARAGUAY PREDICTION:

The visitors have problems with the altitude. Cero wins, 2 ties and five loses is the "guaranies" record in the last 7 official games they had played in Bolivia (4) and Ecuador (3). In Ecuador they did not get any points, concede 9 goals and score 4 goals. Besides the altitude, they will also have to deal with more injury problems: Cáceres (defender), J. Santana (midfielder) and Haedo Valdez (forward) may miss the clash. On the other hand, Ecuador's last weekend performance deserved more than one point, so I will go with them on this one. Ecuador EV.

4) CHILE x URUGUAY PREDICTION:

I am expecting a great game plenty of offense, leading to goals. I will bet the over 2.5.

5) BRASIL x PERU PREDICTION:

I completely agree with the odds, the weakest team of the tournament has almost no chance visiting Brasil (if you bet a dollar on Brasil, you will get 1.18 if they win). The home side is needing these points to improve their fourth position in the table with only 4 games to play at home, which makes this game really important to them because after Peru they will host Paraguay, Bielsa's Chile and Venezuela. This is a bet to parlay (on Brasil). I will also risk a few bucks on the handicap -2.5 goals, which makes me think about the over 3 goals too.

Take a look on the Netherlands, France and England matches. I think we can risk all the handicaps, or parlay all them winning.

WORLD CUP QUALIFIERS PREDICTIONS - SOUTHAMERICA-MATCHDAY 11

2009-03-28T05:44:00.000-07:00

Saturday games - 28th March 2009

1) Uruguay x Paraguay Prediction:
This is the game of the day for sure. Paraguay is the best team of the tournament, but I do not think they are 10 points better than Uruguay (check the table on internet). I am going to bet the under 2.5 goals.

2) Argentina x Venezuela Prediction:
History will come to put things the way they use to happened: bet on the home side. No doubt. It is an expensive bet, so I will parlay it and I will also play the handicap -2 (goals). Two goals is the minimum difference between these two national teams and I think the venezuelans do not have any chance against this Maradona's Argentina.

3) Colombia x Bolivia Prediction:
Colombia had improved their football since Lara was appointed as new manager (after the 4-0 defeat in Santiago). They only got 1 point of 6 because they played against Paraguay, the best team of the tournament, and Brasil (I guess I do not need to explain this one). I think they will start scoring goals (5 games without scoring a goal in this tournament) against the side who has conceded more goals than any other side (the second if we count only the away games). I am going to bet on the home side, and maybe I will try the over 2.5.

Sunday games - 29th March 2009

4) Ecuador x Brasil Prediction:
I think this is going to be a typical Brasil away game: the home side will try to win on the basis of a strong defense and Brasil will play easy. Do not forget the altitude of the Atahualpa Stadium in Quito, Kakà not playing and the news of Robinho and Adriano hanging out late on these last nights. I will bet the under 2.5.

5) Peru x Chile Prediction:
I do not like to bet Peru games, but I can tell you people, I do not see any Del Solar team beating a Bielsa's side. The only chance Peru has is the crowd in the Monumental (the tickets are almost sold out) . Chile PK is -115 on bookmaker.com

PERU DESCENTRALIZADO 2009 PREDICTIONS - Matchday 6-Sunday games

2009-03-21T23:51:00.000-07:00

1) BOLOGNESI vs SPORT ANCASH PREDICTION: These two teams are struggling on the bottom of the table. Both of them have the worst defenses of the peruvian league and they don't have score power. I will go with the home side because I believe they have football to reverse this situation. In my opinion, Ancash is the weakest team of the tournament: they lost the manager and lots of players from last season; and they had already appointed a new manager after matchday 3. For all these reasons, I think this is going to be the first win of the season for Bolito.

2) SPORT HUANCAYO vs CIENCIANO PREDICTION:
The numbers of the league say this is an under 2.5 goals game. Cienciano is an under team whe it is about outings. I will go with the stats, u2.5 it is.

3) ALIANZA LIMA vs U PREDICTION:
This is the most important game of peruvian football. It is a clásico and all we know what this means. Of course I will bet on my team: la U. No doubt we will get this 3 points. You can also try a PK, they are paying 2.10 in bet365.com

4) VALLEJO vs TOTAL CHALACO PREDICTION:
The league table says the home side is doing pretty much well than the visitors: they had not lose any of their 5 games played; but I will pick a PK on Chalaco. I watched them against my U and watched them with Sporting Cristal on TV (their last two games) and they lost because football is not about what you deserve, just like live. On the other hand, Vallejo did not win good teams at home: Ancash is the weakest. You will find 4.33 for Chalaco PK on bet365.com.

ENGLISH PREMIER 08/09 PREDICTIONS- Matchday 30 - Sunday games

2009-03-21T22:53:00.000-07:00

1) Wigan Athletic vs Hull City prediction:
The numbers of both teams say this is an under 2.5 goals game. The home side had scored just twice in the last 4 home games, and the visitors had scored just once in their last 4 away games. On the other hand, both defenses are on the best home/away consideration of the second round (last 10 games).
Anyway, I like the Latics so I will bet a nickle on them. I see they are doing better than the visitors, who have beat Fulham with a lucky last minute goal and got a point hosting the Magpies last week.

2) Manchester City vs Sunderland prediction:
Looking to the numbers of both teams, this is also an under 2.5 goals game.
The home side have important injury concerns: Ireland, Bridge, Kompany and Bellamy are doubtful for this game. If Ireland, Bellamy and Kompany are fit (check the lineups), I will bet on them. If ther are not, I will stay just with the under.

3) Liverpool vs Aston Villa prediction:
Bet on the Reds. They are full of confident, without injury problems and the visitors are not passing a good moment.

EPL 2008/09: Fulham x Blackburn Rovers

2009-03-11T12:29:00.000-07:00

I will bet on the under 2.5 goals. This is a crucial clash for both teams and will be a tough one. Roque Santa Cruz will miss the game and that will diminish the visitors score power.
I guess the visit will not lose this one.

CHAMPIONS LEAGUE: 1st knockout round

2009-03-11T11:56:00.000-07:00

1) Manchester United x Inter: I think the red devils are a better team than the italians.
2) AS Roma x Arsenal: Bet the over 2.5 goals.
3) Barcelona FC x Olympique Lyon: I will bet on the catalans.
4) Porto x Atlético de Madrid: over 2.5 goals

My picks for Sunday 1st March 2009: EPL+SERIE A+ PERU

2009-02-28T18:39:00.000-08:00

These are my picks for English Premier League Sunday games:

1) Aston Villa x Stoke City: Villa. The home side is doing very well this season, and I think they are not going to have any problem to beat Stoke entrenched in drop zone. I am going to bet the handicap -1 -175 (bookmaker.com).

2) Bolton x Newcastle: o2.5. I always bet Bolton at home and Newcastle away playing open games.

My picks for Italy Serie A Sunday games:

3) Atalanta x Chievo Verona: Atalanta. I think last minute defeat against Fiorentina will kill Chievo's good run.

4) Udinese x Lecce: Udinese. I see the home side getting in form.

5) Inter x Roma: o2.5. A great game plenty of offense, leading to goals.

My picks for peruvian 1st division games:

6) Cienciano x Universitario: U PK. The home side is very fortunate to have earned their first 4 points to open the season. I think the U will break this lucky streak. Anyway, they will not lose the game.

7) Inti Gas x Melgar: Melgar PK. I see the home side between the weakest teams of the tournament, and Melgar will have no problems with the altitude.

8) Sport Ancash x Sporting Cristal: Cristal PK. Ancash is the weakest team of the tournament. They lost lots of players from last season and if Galvez took homefield advantage in the altitude, Cristal should have no issues with the task at hand.

Finally, I will go with the Red Devils for tomorrow final game of the Carling Cup.

Have fun and luck.

English Premier League - Matchday 27 - Saturday

2009-02-27T21:19:00.000-08:00

These are my picks for this Saturday 28.02.09:

1) Everton x West Bromwich Albion (WBA): Everton. I think the home side will win this one. You will find the line hovering around -222 on bookmaker.com. You can also try the handicap -1 -130.

2) Chelsea x Wigan: Chelsea. I am confident about Hiddink's teams and Wigan has lost their score power with Heskey at Villa and Palacios at White Hart Lane. The line is too expensive, -350, so I recommend you to try a parlay. I will parlay with Aston Villa's game.

3) Arsenal x Fulham: Bet on the gunners. They beat the likes of Totti on Tuesday and they could have scored at least one more goal. On the other hand, this is Fulham's third game in 6 days and I don't think they are going through this one: Arsenal is more than WBA and Swansea.

4) Middlesbrough x Liverpool: under 2.5. Boro will play to avoid relegation and the Reds will be without Gerard and Torres.

Have fun and luck.

My picks for the FA Cup 2008/09 Fifth Round

2009-02-13T21:59:00.000-08:00

I am just betting 3 of the 5 Saturday (14.02.09) games:

1)Swansea x Fulham:
I will go with Fulham. The cottagers are doing really good. I do not think they are going to have any problem to beat the home side. Anyway, if you do not want to risk, bet the PK for Fulham. It is -105 on bookmaker.com
2)West Ham United x Boro:
I will go with the Hammers (WHU). The visitors are having problems with relegation and they really need to focus in stay in the top flight.
3)Watford x Chelsea:
Chelsea for sure. The home side is currently entrenched in the Championship drop zone.

On Sunday, I will bet on Manchester United. No doubt they will make it happen.

My picks for Sunday 25.01.09

2009-01-25T04:36:00.000-08:00

ITALIA-SERIE A
Giornata 20

Genoa x Catania: Genoa
Lecce x Torino: u2.5; Lecce
Napoli x Roma: Roma/empate or Roma PK
Palermo x Udinese: Palermo
Siena x Atalanta: u2.5

I do not have any predictions for the another 3 games:
I just like the o2.5 on Bologna x Milan and Lazio x Cagliari, and I do not like Inter without Zlatan.

Mis apuestas del sábado 24 de enero.

2009-01-24T08:36:00.000-08:00

ITALIA-Serie A
Giornata 20.

Reggina x Chievo Verona: u2.5
Juve x Fiore: Juve

ESPAÑA-La Liga
Jornada 2o.

Barca x Numancia: Barca.
Sí, es caro, es una apuesta para gente con plata, pero es bastante probable.